Thomas Chopard, historian, and Camille Bressange, cartographer and journalist
The war in Ukraine has triggered one of the largest population displacements of the 21st century. While most people transit via neighbouring countries, where are they being received in Europe and at Europe’s door ?
At the time of writing, the Ukrainian government reports that 12 million citizens, out of a total population of 44 million, have been displaced by the war, among whom, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)[1], 4.8 million have left the country. The Russian invasion launched on 24 February 2022 has triggered one of the largest population displacements of the 21st century. By comparison, and according to the same source, 5.7 million Syrians out of a total of 21 million, and 2.3 million South Sudanese out of 12.4 million, have fled their country at war.
[1] “Ukraine Refugee Situation”, UNHCR, latest update 16 June 2022, https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.
![DF33 En cartes UKRAINE-REFUGIES corr](https://www.icmigrations.cnrs.fr/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/DF33-En-cartes-UKRAINE-REFUGIES-corr.png)
Ukrainian refugees in transit within Europe
Refugees recorded per country
Iceland
Czech Republic
Germany
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
France
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Romania
Turkiyë
Moldova
Note : The data correspond the situation on 1 June 2022
Source : Ukraine Refugee Situation, United Nations High Commission for Refugees
Taking refuge across the border
The countries bordering Ukraine have been the most directly and massively affected by the arrival of refugees. According to UNHCR data in the various countries, seven million individuals from Ukraine have crossed the borders into neighbouring countries, as shown on the first map. Note that this map reflects the numbers of arrivals recorded per country. Certain refugees may be counted more than once if they pass through several different countries.
A total of 3.5 million refugees have crossed into Poland, the main destination country for people fleeing Ukraine. The UNHCR recorded almost 100,000 arrivals per day from 27 February, with a peak of 140,000 on 6 March 2022. Numbers then fell back to 30,000 per day around 21 March, stabilizing at about 20,000 at the end of that month. The reception of new arrivals was facilitated by the large Ukrainian diaspora of about one million people already living in Poland before the war. They were encouraged by the Polish government to plan for the arrival of refugees as early as 15 February, when rumours of invasion started to spread, and played a key role in welcoming them into the country.
Despite their relatively narrow borders with Ukraine, its western neighbours have received very large numbers of refugees with respect to their own populations : 698,420 in Hungary, 587,219 in Romania, 483,306, in Moldova, 466,264 in Slovakia. As was the case in Poland, most refugees arrived in March, with numbers levelling off by around 21 March to 5,000 per day in Hungary, 3,000 in Slovakia, 2,000 in Romania and 1,500 in Moldova.
Although rarely mentioned in the media, Russia is also a major destination for fleeing Ukrainians, and has been so since the first phase of the conflict began in 2014. It has received around one million refugees, mainly from eastern regions most ravaged by the war. The promotion of Russian reception facilities, and incentive measures such as the promise of a Russian passport have certainly played a role in this eastward movement, but reports of internment, interrogation, filtering on the basis of presumed political loyalty, notably among the populations who arrived in May and June, have recently appeared in the press.[2]
[2]“Ukrainian refugees in Russia report interrogations, detention and other abuses”, Washington Post, 11 May 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/ukraine-refugees-russia-filtration-camps/.
![DF3 En cartes UKRAINE-REFUGIES‑2 corr](https://www.icmigrations.cnrs.fr/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/UKRAINE-REFUGIES-2-corr.png)
Distribution of Ukrainian refugees in Europe
Refugees recorded per country
Countries where the majority of recorded Ukrainian refugees have transited to another country
Iceland
Czech Republic
Germany
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
France
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Romania
Türkiye
Moldova
Belarus
Note : The data correspond the situation on 1 June 2022
Source : Ukraine Refugee Situation, United Nations High Commission for Refugees
Gateways to the European Union
With the exception of Russia, where the 1.1 million Ukrainians who took refuge there are still in situ, the refugee populations in the other countries have gradually decreased. Of the 3.7 million refugees who arrived in Poland, around one-third (1.152 million) were still registered on Polish territory in early June. This decline is even more marked in the other neighbouring countries. In Moldova, new arrivals have always been outnumbered by departures, notably to Romania, where half of all Ukrainian refugees arrived directly from Ukraine and the other half from Moldova. But few stay in Romania. According to UNHCR data, out of almost one million people who have crossed through the country, just 82,344 have remained. Fewer than 20% of refugees registered in Moldava, Romania and Slovakia have stayed in these countries. The most notable case is that of Hungary. Of the 731,098 arrivals recorded by the UNHCR at the Ukrainian border, only slightly more than 3% (24,091) were still in the country in early June. Poland is the only country of both transit and destination. Some 1.4 million refugees were counted in the countries neighbouring Ukraine (excluding Russia), in early June, while 2.165 million had travelled further west, of whom almost one-third (780,000) to Germany. A clear change of direction towards central Europe.
Europe temporarily lifted all immigration restrictions for Ukrainians on 4 March, enabling them to travel freely across Europe, and provided exceptional protection to displaced Ukrainians upon request. This freedom of movement for Ukrainian passport holders also explains their arrival in more distant destinations such as Turkey (around 135,000 refugees according to the Turkish government), Georgia (around 20,000), and Israel for Ukrainian citizens with proof of Jewish ancestry (around 15,000).
Returning to a country at war
With figures of 7 million departures from Ukraine but just 4.8 million registered refugees, the UNHCR statistics point up the difficulty of measuring return migration.
The UNHCR has recorded a quite steady flow of around 10,000 returns per day since the start of the war, and from May 2022, returns began to counterbalance departures. According to accounts relayed by the press, the reasons for returning are diverse. Among Ukrainian returnees who emigrated before the war, men report a desire to join up, and women, the desire to be with their relatives or children left behind when they went abroad to find work. Recent refugees, after three months in exile, talk about the winding down of emergency support services, the dislocation of their family, the difficulties of finding a place to live and of settling abroad more generally. This return movement is also observed among internally displaced populations : at the end of May, Kyiv city hall reported that two-thirds of the city’s inhabitants had returned.
To find out more
- Dumont, G.-F., 2022. “L’Ukraine face à la guerre : géopolitique et population”, Population & Avenir, 758(3), pp. 17–19.
The authors
Thomas Chopard is a postdoctoral researcher at CREE, University of Languages and Civilizations (INALCO), and assistant director of the Centre d’études franco-russe. He is a fellow of CI Migration.
Camille Bressange is a cartographer and journalist. She writes for the Wall Street Journal.
Quote this article
Thomas Chopard and Camille Bressange, “Ukrainian refugees in Europe”, in : Antonin Durand, Thomas Chopard, Catherine Gousseff and Claire Zalc (eds.), Feature “Migration and the borders of Ukraine at war”, De facto [Online], 33 | June 2022, posted online on 24 June 2022. URL : https://www.icmigrations.cnrs.fr/en/2022/11/07/defacto-033–05/
Republication
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