François Héran, demographer
Following the invasion of Ukraine by the russian army, president Macron took the floor as president of the council of the european union to pledge that each country, including France, would « play its part » in welcoming refugees. « We will do it » he added « as europeans, in a coordinated, responsible, and cohesive manner ».
Numbers of Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi asylum seekers submitting a first asylum application in Germany, France and Poland, 2014–2020
Iraqis
Afghans
Syrians
GERMANY
FRANCE
POLAND
Source : Eurostat
As Germany has a population of 83 million and France 67 million, for the sake of accuracy, the responses of the two countries should be compared in relation to their respective population sizes. This would mean reducing the numbers recorded in Germany by around 20%. Even by doing so, the difference would remain very large.
The numbers recorded in Poland are so small that they are not visible above the axis line.
France is more similar to Poland than to Germany.
Reception of Syrian refugees : France takes a back seat
What does it really mean to “play one’s part” in receiving refugees ? Does it mean receiving the modest quotas that France habitually accepts at each “refugee crisis”? Or does it imply that responsibility should be equitably shared across Europe, according to the population size and economic weight of each country ? Depending on which option is chosen, the numbers involved are of very different magnitudes. Yet, neither the political class nor public opinion in our country appear to be truly aware of the implications of each option.
Let us begin with the first option. Before the war, Syria had a population of 22 million. How many Syrian asylum seekers did France take in between 2014 and 2020 ? Around 25,200 according to Eurostat data (graph below). This is a paltry figure by comparison with Germany, which registered 633,100 asylum applications by Syrians over the same period, 25 times more than France. Yet according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), by the spring of 2022, a total of 6.8 million Syrians had been forced to flee their country (and a similar number were internally displaced). Most have stayed in neighbouring countries : Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Only 17% (1,140,220 people) have been able to request asylum in a country of the European Union, of whom 55.5% in Germany and just 2.2% in France. The arithmetic is simple : 2.2% of of the 17% of Syrians in the EU represents a total of less than 0.4% of all Syrian refugees (25,200 out of 6.8 million). This is hardly the “tsunami” denounced by certain political parties.
Of course, this may partly reflect the preferences of the individuals concerned. They may see Germany as a more attractive country than France because it is more prosperous and more favourably disposed towards them. But this cannot explain the sheer scale of the difference between the two countries. The French authorities are wont to evoke the welcome extended to fleeing Afghans. True, between 2014 and 2020, 8% of asylum applications by Afghans in the EU were registered in France, but this share is still well below that of the Germany, which accounted for 36% of the total (49,200 requests registered, versus 213,000)
Receiving capacity : structural or political ?
When talking about a country’s receiving capacity, it is important to distinguish between its structural capacity – its population, wealth or geographical size – and its politically constructed capacity, such as the resources devoted to application processing, provision of accommodation, migration policy in general, labour market organization, the regime governing employment of foreign workers, or the externalization of border controls. France accounts for 15% of the EU population and 17% of its GDP (link in french). If we accept that a country should receive a number of refugees in Europe in proportion to its structural capacities, France is clearly very far from registering an equitable quota of Syrian asylum applications, which, based on this criterion, would have totalled between 170,000 and 200,000 and not a mere 25,000.
Ukrainian refugees in France : room for improvement
What is the current situation with respect to Ukraine ? Before the war, the country had a population of 44 million, twice that of Syria. According to the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, France was ready to receive 100,000 refugees “or more” (statement of 14 March 2022 (link in french)). Two months later, the French Office for Integration and Immigration (OFII) announced that around 80,000 asylum seeker allowances (ADA) had been granted in record time to Ukrainian refugees (link in french). The authorities certainly made a huge effort, alongside associations and volunteers working on the ground. But can we truly say, at the European level, that France is “playing its part” in the reception of Ukrainian refugees ?
As in Syria, Ukraine’s neighbours are on the front line. According to recent UNHCR data, (25 May 2022), of the 6.8 million Ukrainians (mainly women and children) who fled the country between the end of February and mid-May, more than half took refuge in neighbouring countries. Over the same period, 2,230,000 people entered or returned to Ukraine. The UNHCR estimates that 2.9 million people have sought refuge farther afield. These statistics, alongside France’s weight in the geographical area of Europe not bordering Ukraine, i.e. 13.8% of the population and 15.1% of GDP, can be used as a basis for calculation. If France applied a principle of equitable and cohesive distribution, it would receive a share of Ukrainians in proportion to its demographic and economic weight in this area, i.e. a total of 400,000 to 440,000 people, well above the number anticipated by the Minister of the Interior.
A temptation to carry on as before by transferring responsibility to the diasporas
One may argue that another factor must also be considered, that of the size of the Ukrainian diaspora in each country liable to attract new arrivals. In 2020, the largest Ukrainian communities outside neighbouring countries were in Italy (240,000), in the Czech Republic (163,000), in Germany (135,000) and in Spain (107,000). There were fewer than 40,000 in all other countries, and just 20,300 in France according to INSEE statistics. While perhaps underestimated, these number draw a clearly differentiated map of “Ukrainian Europe”. Can we satisfy ourselves with an arrangement whereby Ukrainian refugees are received across Europe in proportion to the size of their existing diaspora, which, in the case of France, is very small ? Applying this additional criterion would entail asking Ukrainian immigrants already living in the country to take responsibility for incoming refugees, a task supposedly assumed by governments under the principle of equity defended by the European Union. Were the French government to apply this doctrine, the promise of a warm welcome to refugees announced with such panache would be no more than an empty gesture.
“But France must play its part”: Michel Rocard’s belated remorse
“France cannot take all the misery of the world on its shoulders, but it must play its part.” Emmanuel Macron’s alluded to this famous phrase by Michel Rocard in his speech. Some were shocked to hear it cited without its second part. It is worth reading the excellent analysis by Juliette Déborde on this point : “’Misère du monde’, ce qu’a vraiment dit Michel Rocard”, Libération, Désintox column, 22 April 2015 (link in french). On 3 December 1989, soon after the affair of the Muslim headscarf in Creil, the then prime minister clearly stated on the TF1 TV channel : “We cannot take all the misery of the world on our shoulders”. He repeated the same words to the National Assembly on 13 December, before driving the message home in January 1990 in front of a group of MPs of North African origin : “I thought hard before pronouncing this phrase. I believed that it was my duty to take full responsibility for my words. I say it clearly today. France is no longer, can no longer be a receiving country for new immigrants. I have said it before and I remain convinced today that however generous we may be, we cannot take all the misery of the world on our shoulders”.
It was not until 24 August 1996, in a tribune in Le Monde, that Michel Rocard, perhaps measuring the damaging effects of his adage, added this caveat “but France must play its part”. A pentimento, as they say in the art world, but pronounced after seven years of reflection.
The author
François Héran is a demographer, holder of the Migration and Societies Chair at the Collège du France and director of IC Migration.
Quote this article
François Héran, “And if France were to truly “play its part” in receiving refugees ? Antonin Durand, Thomas Chopard, Catherine Gousseff and Claire Zalc (eds.), Feature “Migration and the borders of Ukraine at war”, De facto [Online], 33 | June 2022, posted online on 24 June 2022. URL : https://www.icmigrations.cnrs.fr/en/2022/11/07/defacto-033–04/
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